Blue Jays’ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. facing potential nightmare luck regression
By Billy Heyen
First thing’s first: Don’t worry too much about Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
He’s a superstar for the Toronto Blue Jays no matter what.
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But there is a chance that he sees at least some negative regression in 2026 due to a luck-related stat.
Guerrero was the second-luckiest hitter in baseball according to one stat from Baseball Savant: individual hitter Fielding Run Value. Essentially, it documents how defenses played relative to average against one hitter.
And when Vladdy was at the plate, opponents had a negative-11 Fielding Run Value, behind just Trent Grisham of the Yankees.
It’ll be interesting to look at this chart after the season ahead, too. Will the same guys have luck?
It’s hard to know exactly what factors into things here.
There were power hitters on the list of unluckiest hitters, too, which was led by the Yankees’ Ben Rice.
Vladdy will have another great season. But maybe his numbers decline at least a bit.
