2026 NFL free agency: Best players available on offense
by Bill Barnwell
NFL free agency is almost upon us. As the league attempts to maneuver through the snowstorm blanketing the East Coast and descend on Indianapolis for the combine, there will be plenty of discussions about which players are about to sign where and for how much money. Most organizations have spent the early parts of the offseason sorting out the players who are coming available, and we’re two weeks away from teams being able to negotiate and agree to terms with them. The legal negotiating window opens at noon ET on March 9, and free agency officially opens at 4 p.m. ET on March 11.
So, I’m here to produce my annual free agent tiers. This week, I’ll go position by position on the offensive side of the ball. Next Monday, I’ll do the same on defense.
The goal isn’t to land players on specific teams (although I’m going to lob out a few suggestions along the way) but instead to get a baseline of what the market looks like from a team perspective. How many real starters are available at each position? Which positions might benefit from having some cap casualties hit the market over the next couple of weeks? Where can teams be patient? And where should they be more aggressive, knowing that there’s a huge drop-off from their favorite option to everyone else?
I have my own opinions about players, like everybody else does, but this is generally more about where I think the league will land on certain guys as opposed to how much I think the market should bear for an individual player. I’ll also include restricted free agents and where they would fall, although those players are extremely unlikely to move this offseason. Let’s begin at QB.
Quarterbacks
Tier 1: Franchise players
Tier 1 quarterbacks hit free agency about once every two decades. There are none on the market this season.
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
While acknowledging that Joe Flacco eventually landed in the Pro Bowl Games after others opted out or declined invitations, there aren’t any QBs who should be considered Pro Bowlers based on the merit of their play on the open market.
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: Daniel Jones, Colts
Potential cap casualties: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
Jones’ season ended prematurely yet again after he tore an Achilles in November, but he was a revelation for a dominant Colts offense during the first half of the campaign. It’s tough to imagine Jones playing quite as well over a full year in 2026, especially since he’ll be recovering from the injury, but both Jones and the Colts should be incentivized to see if a reunion produces similar results. It would be a surprise if Jones landed a multiyear guarantee in free agency, but it takes only one team (or a well-timed bluff from an agent) to make that happen.
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Tagovailoa’s tenure with the Dolphins is likely to come to an end, with Miami paying Tagovailoa $52 million in cash to play somewhere else in 2026. He has his issues, including inconsistent arm strength, an inability to create out of structure and a worrisome track record of concussions, but he’s also two years removed from leading the league in passing yards and one from leading it in completion percentage. As the point guard in a short-to-intermediate passing game, Tagovailoa’s accuracy helps play him up into competent starter territory.
Tagovailoa with an upper-middle-class QB contract was a problem. Tagovailoa at the veterans minimum — which is what a new team would likely pay him in 2026 — could turn out to be a very useful contributor in the right scheme. It’s also incumbent on Tagovailoa to pick the right landing spot to rebuild his value in advance of potentially landing a starting job in a more advantageous situation in 2027. Could he be the quarterback for the Chiefs in September before Patrick Mahomes returns from his knee injury?
Projected average annual salary: $30-45 million for Jones, $1.5 million for Tagovailoa
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: Jimmy Garoppolo, Rams; Aaron Rodgers, Steelers; Malik Willis, Packers
Potential cap casualties: Kirk Cousins, Falcons; Justin Fields, Jets; Geno Smith, Raiders
Someone’s going to take the plunge on Willis, who was virtually unplayable before looking eminently comfortable in three spot starts for an injured Jordan Love over the past two seasons. Willis has averaged a whopping 10.9 yards per pass attempt and 6.2 yards per rush in Green Bay, comfortably shouldering a meaningful role in the offense even while taking over midgame, as he did against the Bears late last season.
Is he a Matt LaFleur creation? That’s too simplistic of an argument for me. LaFleur did an excellent job of building both quarterback run staples and play-action concepts off those ideas for his young quarterback, but Willis had to execute those plays at a high level, too. (We’re long past the point where simply introducing those plays is going to flummox professional defenses.) By leaving the Packers, Willis enters an uncertain world where his new team might not have a clue. The logical thing would be for that offense to install the same concepts that worked for Willis elsewhere and go from there, but, well, this isn’t always a rational league.
Garoppolo and Rodgers are heading in opposite directions. Garoppolo’s value goes up each year as he doesn’t play, safely ensconced in a great offense behind Matthew Stafford. Rodgers’ value goes down as he continues to step onto the field, with the future Hall of Famer offering virtually no ceiling for a Steelers team that remains desperate to make the playoffs and entirely incurious about what it would be like to go any further. For these Steelers, the mid-40s version of Rodgers is the perfect quarterback.
With the Browns, Cardinals, Colts, Dolphins, Jets, Steelers and Vikings all potentially in the market for new starting quarterbacks this offseason, there should be at least one Week 1 starting job available for Cousins, Fields or Smith. It’d be easiest for the last team in the game of musical chairs to talk itself into Cousins, who has the lengthiest track record of playing reasonable football and was fine for the Falcons in 2024 before injuries led to his benching. Personally, I might have more faith in Smith looking like a passable starter behind a competent offensive line, something he hasn’t seen since 2023.
Projected average annual salary: $20-30 million for Willis, $8-16 million for everyone else
Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money
Free agents: Joe Flacco, Bengals; Marcus Mariota, Commanders; Gardner Minshew, Chiefs; Mitchell Trubisky, Bills
Mariota has done very well as the backup to Jayden Daniels in Washington. He has posted a 56.9 Total QBR over two years in Washington, averaging 7.6 yards per attempt over that span. He’s one of the four best backup quarterbacks in the NFL, which is enough to earn what would be starter money at a handful of other positions.
Projected average annual salary: $6-12 million
Tier 6: Backups likely to earn roster spot
Free agents: Kyle Allen, Lions; Teddy Bridgewater, Buccaneers; Sam Howell, Eagles; Tyler Huntley, Ravens; Trey Lance, Chargers; Kenny Pickett, Raiders; Tyrod Taylor, Jets; Skylar Thompson, Steelers; Carson Wentz, Vikings; Russell Wilson, Giants; Zach Wilson, Broncos
The Seahawks, Vikings and Eagles have all traded for Howell over the past couple of years, but he has thrown just 14 passes over that time frame, with the Vikings preferring to add Wentz over the possibility of playing Howell. Wentz led the league in both interceptions and sacks in his lone year as a starter with Washington.
Pickett has also bounced around the league over that same stretch, finishing fourth in Cleveland’s four-man rumba for three spots last summer. He’s 16-11 as a starter without exhibiting any sort of sustained offensive proficiency.
Projected average annual salary: $1.2-4 million
Running backs
Tier 1: Franchise players
We might see a running back or two earn the franchise tag because $14.5 million is pretty reasonable relative to what a back might earn as part of a multiyear guarantee. But I’m not sure there are any true franchise-caliber backs in the vein of Saquon Barkley or Christian McCaffrey entering free agency.
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
Free agents: Breece Hall, Jets
The spectacular seasons produced by Barkley and Derrick Henry in 2024 served to remind teams that getting talented running backs out of hopeless situations can produce outsized results. There wasn’t really a free agent RB in the 2025 class who fit that profile, but Hall and the bereft offenses he played in during his four years with the Jets would qualify. From 2023 through 2025, the average Hall carry was expected to gain just 3.9 yards, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That was the fourth-lowest average for backs with 600 attempts or more over that span.
The Jets didn’t trade Hall to the Chiefs for a middle-round pick when they had an opportunity at the deadline, suggesting that they saw their lead back’s future in green. Given that the franchise tag is $14.5 million and the transition tag comes in at only $11.7 million, keeping Hall around would be financially reasonable. But if Hall gets the chance to hit the open market, he should run away and never look back.
Projected average annual salary: $12-15 million
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: Travis Etienne Jr., Jaguars; Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks
Walker is the most notable name in this mix after winning Super Bowl MVP. Teams are going to be able to talk themselves both into and out of the Seahawks RB. As the broadcast mentioned during the title game, Walker is inconsistent as a receiver and isn’t even an average pass blocker, which will keep teams from employing him as an every-down option. It’s notable that after the Zach Charbonnet injury, the Seahawks used George Holani on 33.3% of the snaps in the Super Bowl instead of simply giving Walker all three downs.
